Nicola's seen the latest Ashcroft polls

[Stevie Jarron]

Here Jim,

Compare Mr Murphy's efforts above to an SNP rally today.

http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons ... asgow/9385

Reported on by Channel 4, so no bias unless you think the SNP have them in their back pockets too!

[Stevie Jarron]

https://twitter.com/weemokerr/status/59 ... 68/photo/1

and another in Glasgow

[NickB]

.
Another poll out today - Panelbase this time - showing the SNP in a record-breaking 21% lead, with Prof. Curtice's 'poll of polls' predicting 54 SNP seats.

I wonder what the establishment is going to wheel out in the next ten days. Gogzilla is surely a busted flush, and the fact that Nicola cut off her sisters doll's hair doesn't seem to be having the impact the Mail had hoped. I suspect we are going to see some very dirty tricks.

VOW2 anyone?

[jimcee]

So there you are - another crop of spin (what is now the current word for doubtful facts) from the SNP camp.
Not that that particular persuasion have a monopoly on smear - it is unfortunately a media disease of looking for dirt
With regard to the pictures we have seen purveyed recently on this website could I just say this, as a former photographer, and a dabbler in the digital revolution.
Nowadays it is perfectly possible to produce any image which shows your protégée in a good light, and conversely your opponent in a derogatory one. I could, if I had a mind to do it, produce a photograph of myself having a cosy chat with President Putin,
So reliance on the photographic image portrayed in the tabloids is naive to say the least.
The same goes for polls (Ashcroft or otherwise) - NB trumpets a recent one showing the SNP 21? points ahead and this is not what Mrs Sturgeon wants - she does not like the false sense of security of everything being done and dusted and no need to go to the polling station because it is a foregone conclusion.
Going back to the referendum, it is probable that the narrowing of the gap in the polls, towards the end contributed in a larger turnout of the NO contingent, as they couldn't rely on complacency.
It will be interesting to see whether nearer to polling day there is a shift in the SNP press to a diminuition on their poll results to get their punters out
Finally, to Steve J, sorry I have not taken up the defence of Mr Milliband in his condemnation of D.Cameron - he had a very legitimate point to his remarks , but not really relevant to the current poll. Mind you, his predecessor T. Blair was just as suspect in his judgement, and that might be worth an airing if this lot fizzles out.

[NickB]

So there you are - another crop of spin (what is now the current word for doubtful facts) from the SNP camp.

It will be interesting to see whether nearer to polling day there is a shift in the SNP press to a diminuition on their poll results to get their punters out

Jim,

You appear to be suggesting that the polls are all corrupt, or even in some way controlled by the SNP.

Do you have any evidence for this?

The poll I quoted above, btw, was Panelbase, not an Ashcroft poll. The most reliable guide is probably John Curtice's 'Poll of Polls'

[jimcee]

My objection to polls is not based on their results, although I would suggest that the pollster conducting the poll, has maybe an axe to grind.
As in most scenario's there is an element both of duplicity, and indecision, in answering downright to a question of voting intentions - such is the diversity of human nature that enquiry into their innermost thoughts almost equates to an invasion of privacy, and that the replies are maybe suspect.
It, I Think, should be an obligation on pollsters, to state what there questions might be, and where and when the poll is taken place, and also the number of recipients who gave a definitive answer.
This might then give an answer to the reliance we can put on the results.
However, such is the nature of humanity, that we rely on these pollsters to keep us informed of how our next door neighbour thinks, which might just be contrary to our own perception.

[NickB]

I Think, should be an obligation on pollsters, to state what there questions might be, and where and when the poll is taken place, and also the number of recipients who gave a definitive answer.

All this information is gathered and is available in the full published documentation for each poll.