Scottish opinion seven weeks on

[NickB]

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The latest panelbase opinion poll asked some interesting questions - and got some interesting answers:

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Broadly speaking, do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the relationship between Holyrood and Westminster?

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- The leader of any party represented in the Scottish Parliament should always be an MSP, not a Westminster MP.

Agree: 61%
Disagree: 20%
Don’t know: 19%

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- The Scottish Parliament should have the power to make any Westminster MP representing a Scottish seat appear in front of its committees.

Agree: 68%
Disagree: 13%
Don’t know: 19%

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- Any package of further devolution proposed by the UK government should be subject to the approval of the Scottish Parliament.

Agree: 74%
Disagree: 13%
Don’t know: 13%

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- Any package of further devolution proposed by the UK government should be subject to the approval of the Scottish people in a referendum.

Agree: 50%
Disagree: 31%
Don’t know: 20%


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- The Scottish Parliament should control ALL revenues raised in Scotland, including North Sea oil, and then pay a lump sum to Westminster for shared UK services, rather than receiving a lump sum to pay for devolved services.

Agree: 62%
Disagree: 24%
Don’t know: 14%

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- Any domestic bill (ie not relating to defence or foreign affairs) passed at Westminster affecting Scotland should only be implemented in Scotland if it commands a majority of Scottish MPs.

Agree: 65%
Disagree: 18%
Don’t know: 17%

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- The Scottish Parliament should have the legal authority to hold a referendum on any subject without requiring the permission of the UK government.

Agree: 51%
Disagree: 34%
Don’t know: 15%

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So - huge support for devo-max, or full fiscal autonomy (ffa) as it is also known.

[Gavin Rae]

Nick - no real surprises

In my opinion this poll just reinforces the view that the SNP independence strategy was seriously flawed and lost from the time of negotiating the referendum questions

Whilst Salmond totally rejected devo max on the campaign trail did he not advocate to include it on the ballot paper in the referendum negotiations ?

Did he not infuriate some of your SNP members in 2012 by indicating he would rather see Scotland gain full taxation powers but remain part of the UK for the time being?

Was Mr Salmond not quoted as saying 'devo max instead of independence is very attractive ?

To sum up

Arithmetic for Dummies

Mixed messages from SNP + lost referendum negotiations = 45

Snoman

[jimcee]

Gavin,
Your responses to NB will hopefully keep him from getting too "cock a hoop".
However although Mr Salmond made several tactical blunders during the campaign, I am under the impression that at the start he wished "devo max" to be included as an option, but "high and mighty Cameron" excluded this because he thought that the "No" vote was a foregone conclusion.
So Cameron was also responsible for a very serious misjudgement and had the "Devo Max" option been available at the times the votes were cast, I am confident that it would have proved to be the most popular choice, and would have saved all the current wrangling by those with a political axe to grind - but maybe not - given any change in the political landscape from whatever quarter there will be dissention, as a matter of course.
However it keeps the media in a job, and these columns from withering.

[NickB]

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This afternoon has seen the publication of one of the most remarkable Britain-wide polls for many a year. Ipsos-Mori are now showing the SNP on an 8% share of the vote - in spite of the fact that Scotland comprises just 9% of the population of Great Britain! Strangely, the SNP are 'only' on 59% in the Scottish subsample - the apparent anomaly comes about because respondents in Scotland are more likely to say they are certain to vote. And it's perfectly possible that phenomenon will carry through (at least to some extent) to the election itself, due to the surge in public engagement caused by the referendum.

The Liberal Democrats are just 1% ahead of the SNP across Britain - and that's in spite of the fact that their 9% share is a touch higher than their recent average.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori) :

Conservatives 32%
Labour 29%
UKIP 14%
Liberal Democrats 9%
SNP 8%
Greens 7%
Plaid Cymru 1%

[jimcee]

NB - you are a great one for statistics - especially when they provide comfort.
Perhaps you might be prepared to forecast how these percentages you supplied would work out in the representation of the next Westminster and Holyrood parliaments - given our current electoral systems.
Get the slide rule out, or maybe the crystal ball, and give us your take on this valuable information.

[NickB]

NB - you are a great one for statistics - especially when they provide comfort.
Perhaps you might be prepared to forecast how these percentages you supplied would work out in the representation of the next Westminster and Holyrood parliaments - given our current electoral systems.
Get the slide rule out, or maybe the crystal ball, and give us your take on this valuable information.

The Ipsos Mori survey at the end of October asking about Westminster voting intentions shows Labour would poll 23% of the Scottish vote, leaving them with just four seats in Scotland if the swing was translated directly to seats. In comparison, support for the SNP has surged to 52%, giving them a projected 54 seats at Westminster.

In fact it is not as simple as that. The Ipsos Mori poll was better for the SNP than YouGov’s poll two days later which put the SNP on 43%, 16 points ahead of Labour on 27%This is much less than the lead reported by Ipsos MORI, who put the SNP 26 points ahead. It is, however, well in line with the figures in the Scottish subsamples of YouGov’s recent British polls.

And of course Labour majorities across labour seats vary widely, with a much bigger swing needed in some areas than others.

All the above notwithstanding, Prof Curtice, Scotland's favourite internet psephologist, predicts that even on the YouGov figures Labour’s Scottish representation at Westminster could fall to just 10 seats, while the SNP might have 47.

This depends, of course, on the Scottish electorate not reverting to type in May and falling for the old, tired 'vote Labour to keep the Tories out' mantra again. It is a long time - in political terms - until we cast our votes in May.

[jimcee]

NB - yet another wheen of statistics to gladden the eye of the SNP hierarchy.
But could I suggest that the new members to the ranks were all committed YES voters.
And that it does not alter the equation of 45/55.
So, they turn out in their droves to decimate the number of Labour seats north of the border
But the mantra that "Vote Labour to keep the Tories out", is no use here, as the lack of the Scottish contingent of Labour MP's will enhance a Tory majority, and even a rump of SNP members will not seriously affect the arithmetic of government.
You do admit that it is some time until we cast our next votes in May, and a lot can happen in the intervening time, so the whole situation is fairly fluid, and any crystal ball forecasts at this time are just that - pie in the sky.

[NickB]

You do admit that it is some time until we cast our next votes in May, and a lot can happen in the intervening time, so the whole situation is fairly fluid, and any crystal ball forecasts at this time are just that - pie in the sky.

Fair comment Jim.

However, you asked me how the percentages quoted would work out, and I have done that for you.

On current trends and voting intentions the Labour party are looking to lose a lot of seats.

[jimcee]

NB
Well if your prognosis is correct and Labour lose a lot to SNP, and Conservative lose some to UKIP, then come May, there will be a lot of gerrymandering to form an administration - fine for the also-ran's but not so good for the country ( and here I mean UK). However this Smith fellow is supposed to be reporting back next week on what the parties bickering have agreed on, so that might change the perceptions - locally at least.