2010 UK election: Scotland got Government Scotland voted for

[longshanks]

[NickB]

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I fail to see the relevance of those figures. Even if everyone in Scotland had voted SNP we still would not have had an SNP government - which is why so many in Scotland who would like to vote SNP see it as a wasted vote at Westminster elections and vote Labour instead.

Here's the real picture:



The significant point is how many Scots DID NOT vote for the coalition parties. You seem to be conveniently ignoring the massive Labour vote. (1,035,528 votes).

And of course a huge number of Scottish LibDem voters were enraged when the party went into coalition with the Tories - they didn't vote for 'the coalition' - there were no 'coalition' candidates.

Another classic example of essentially meaningless data cherry-picked to mislead and misinform.

What will be interesting will be the SNP vote for the 2015 Westminster elections in the sad event of a NO vote this year.

[PentlandPirate II]

Having said that, in the unlikely event of a NO vote I would expect to see a lot more SNP MPs returned to Westminster

I think a "No" vote will be a disaster for the SNP and send it back where it was 20 years ago.

[NickB]

I think a "No" vote will be a disaster for the SNP and send it back where it was 20 years ago.

Twenty years ago? Let's see . . . 1992 General Election - the SNP got 21.5% of the vote and just 3 seats

Five years later in the 1997 General Election they got 0.6% more of the vote at 22.1% and won 6 seats - the exact same number they have now.

Such are the inequities of the Westminster FPTP system.

I suspect a NO vote will result in increased SNP representation at Westminster in 2015 and another majority SNP government at Holyrood in 2016.

[PentlandPirate II]

A 'No' vote is a statement against SNP policies, so you can expect a reduced popularity for the SNP everywhere.

[NickB]

A 'No' vote is a statement against SNP policies, so you can expect a reduced popularity for the SNP everywhere.

Independence is just one SNP policy. Plenty of people who don't want independence voted for them at the last election. They are the only party people trust because they are the only party fighting Scotland's corner. The others are puppets run from Westminster.

Trust me, a NO vote will not see the end if the SNP. Look at their dramatic rise after the NO vote in 1979.

A YES vote, on the other hand, might see the SNP decline as a force in Scottish politics - but only from 2021 onwards. I would still expect them to do well in the first independent Holyrood election in 2016.

[longshanks]

A 'No' vote is a statement against SNP policies, so you can expect a reduced popularity for the SNP everywhere.

You're right PP.

The latest, comprehensive, Scottish Social Attitudes survey was published last night......the nationalists must be in despair now; despite all the fanfare and wish lists and talk of nirvana only 29% responded Yes in answer to the referendum question.

...and, when asked if they thought they'd be £500 worse off (which is probably optimistic in the extreme) only 15% said they'd vote Yes.

Some more revealing findings:

[NickB]

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As usual you change the subject when your original post is shown to be nonsense, your only tactic being to post yet another Better Together propaganda poster.

Still, I suppose it saves you actually having to actually think about the issues.

Let's look at the figures you refer to from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, complete and without the spin.



As usual you/Bitter Together are cherry-picking your figures.

It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010.

Interesting how support for 'devo-max' has remained almost constant.

And worrying - for the unionists - that less than a third of Scots are happy with the status quo.

For those who have come in at the bottom of the thread, here's my revised / accurate version of your shockingly misleading original poster:

[longshanks]

Let's look at the figures you refer to from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, complete and without the spin.



As usual you/Bitter Together are cherry-picking your figures.

It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010.

Would it be just as true to say that support for full independence was down by 12% from 2011 and 4% down from 2012?

Would it also be true to say that The Scottish Attitudes Survey also asked the exact referendum question and only 29% answered Yes ?

Didn't the "Rev" Stu over at WangsOverBath not reproduce that table ? Hmmm....I wonder why ?

[NickB]

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The actual report is HERE

I can't see anywhere the actual referendum question was asked, can you? The question was included as part of two more compliocatd questions, but was not asked directly:

The 2013 survey also asked – inevitably, for the first time – how they intended to vote in response to the question that will appear on the referendum ballot paper, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’.

The issues was addressed as follows:

~ If you do vote, will you vote ‘Yes’ or vote ‘No’ - or haven’t you decided yet?

Note this formulation quote deliberately made it relatively easy for people to say they had not fully made up their minds as yet. Indeed, as many as 34% said they had not decided as yet. Meanwhile, 20% said that they will vote ‘Yes’ while 42% indicated they will vote ‘No’.

Those who said they were undecided were then further asked:

At the moment, which way do you think you are most likely to vote, Yes or No?.

So - at no point was the actual referendum question asked.

Strange how you seem to leap about from one bit of misleading data to the next without ever answering the rebuttal made of your original fallacy.

[longshanks]

The 2013 survey also asked – inevitably, for the first time – how they intended to vote in response to the question that will appear on the referendum ballot paper, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’.

The issues was addressed as follows:

~ If you do vote, will you vote ‘Yes’ or vote ‘No’ - or haven’t you decided yet?

Note this formulation quote deliberately made it relatively easy for people to say they had not fully made up their minds as yet. Indeed, as many as 34% said they had not decided as yet. Meanwhile, 20% said that they will vote ‘Yes’ while 42% indicated they will vote ‘No’.

Those who said they were undecided were then further asked:

At the moment, which way do you think you are most likely to vote, Yes or No?.

So - at no point was the actual referendum question asked.

Do you actually know what the referendum question is ?

Noteworthy that you avoid answering my previous question viz: "Would it be just as true to say that support for full independence was down by 12% from 2011 and 4% down from 2012?"

Hmmm.............

[NickB]

Do you actually know what the referendum question is ?

They were asked conditional questions about their responses to the question, as my quote makes quite clear.

They were not asked the question itself.

I am sorry, I assumed you would be able to see the difference.

People shouldn’t worry too much about this poll anyway; it is already redundant, events having moved on since it was conducted prior to October last year. The White Paper has been published and Osborne’s Autumn statement has been announced.

[longshanks]

They were not asked the question itself.

Well, I'm far too busy to flog this dead horse any further, and will only congratulate those readers (seemingly all bar one)who correctly spotted :

"The 2013 survey also asked – inevitably, for the first time – how they intended to vote in response to the question that will appear on the referendum ballot paper, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’.
The issues was addressed as follows:
~ If you do vote, will you vote ‘Yes’ or vote ‘No’ - or haven’t you decided yet? "

People shouldn’t worry too much about this poll anyway.

Presumably you are only talking to nationalists there.

..................................


Its getting even more noteworthy now that you continue to avoid answering my previous question viz: "Would it be just as true to say that support for full independence was down by 12% from 2011 and 4% down from 2012?".....asked in response to your assertion: "It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010."



Hmmm.............

[Tim Bowles]

Well well. I have been away from here for a long while because the tone was getting a little unfriendly for me. An emaill from Nick told me anonymity was being abolished , so I though I'd check in and see if anything had changed. It seems it is the same old faces, exactly the same old arguments. Perhaps it is a last blitz by the anonymous ones before they unmask themselves on Monday.
All of these opinion polls are pretty worthless - they sample a very small section of the population, they take a snapshot of an instant in time and are usually obsolete by the time they are published. Not only that, but here is a shock - people lie to opinion pollsters. (I lied to one today because I was at a critical stage in the manufacture of a fish pie and wanted them off the phone). Manipulating and cherry-picking data from the results doesn't really affect how people will vote in future polls, although that is what most politicians try to do.
There is only one poll that counts and that happens in September. The result of that one will not be open to interpretation about what it really means. It will be Yes, or it will be No. Both sides will then have to deal with the result rather than trying to manipulate the figures to get them to say what they want.

Just to stoke the fire, I see from the BBC News site that apparently a vote either way can be bought for £500 a head. Are we really such a parcel of rogues?

So there. Perhaps I am one of the droves predicted to come flooding back with the new openness. Time will tell.

[NickB]

"Would it be just as true to say that support for full independence was down by 12% from 2011 and 4% down from 2012?".....asked in response to your assertion: "It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010."

It would be . . . . except for the fact that in this question people were given four choices, and there will be no third or fourth option on the ballot paper.

In terms of relevance to the referendum it all depends on whether you think disenfranchised devo-maxers will vote for the independence prospect on offer or for the status quo.

That is where the whole referendum hangs in the balance, and that is why the NO campaign are getting so jumpy.

And, as Tim says above, there is only one poll that counts.

[longshanks]

"Would it be just as true to say that support for full independence was down by 12% from 2011 and 4% down from 2012?".....asked in response to your assertion: "It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010."

It would be . . . . except for the fact that in this question people were given four choices, and there will be no third or fourth option on the ballot paper.

Ah, now you've answered. So your statement "It would be just as true to say that support for full independence was up by 3% from 2010." would be . . . . except for the fact that in this question people were given four choices, and there will be no third or fourth option on the ballot paper.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Sheeeeesh !

The huge advantage the No campaign now has with regard to the "DevoMax but not separation" voters is that the SNP have shot their bolt and have laid their (uncosted) offer out for all to see and pick apart.

The No campaign have the delightful prospect of three highly publicised party conferences in the Spring each of which will, without doubt, commit to a DevoMax.

Game over.

Just popped into WangsOverBath to see how the cybernats have reacted to the devasting conclusion of the survey....well, there's a lot of greeting but the anti-British rants have sure taken off.....sure sign they're utterly rattled.

I hear a container load of Kleenex has been delivered to the plush YeSNP luxury offices marked for the attention of Nicola.

lol.

[NickB]

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If you say so, Longshanks.

I find it unlikely that anyone will believe a word the three main parties say in the Spring as they gear up for all-out battle for the 2015 Westminster election. The idea that they are all at each others' throats on everything except the agreed bribe they will offer the Scots to vote NO is something not many will fall for.

Tell me something, what will you do in the event of a YES vote?

Will you work constructively to help build the new nation?

[longshanks]

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I find it unlikely that anyone will believe a word the three main parties say in the Spring as they gear up for all-out battle for the 2015 Westminster election. The idea that they are all at each others' throats on everything except the agreed bribe they will offer the Scots to vote NO is something not many will fall for.

I think you may be guilty of either naivety or wishful thinking there or maybe even bubble living .

[NickB]

I think you may be guilty of either naivety or wishful thinking there or maybe even bubble living .

And I think that as usual when out-argued you choose to play the man, not the ball.

So predictable, Longshanks.

Make the most of it. 102 hours from now 'Longshanks' will once again be merely a historical figure and you will be posting under your real name or not at all.

[longshanks]

Tell me something, what will you do in the event of a YES vote?

Will you work constructively to help build the new nation?

Yes I will tell you but first a few suggestions please about forms of constructive work one could get involved in ?

........oh, and seeing as I'm going to answer your question (later) you tell me something:

What will you do in the event of a NO vote?

Will you work constructively to help build the UK into an even better place ?