Seil Chat

NO down 4%, YES down 5% in the third poll to hit the streets this week.

Read Prof. Curtice's analysis

Or the analysis by Wings Over Scotland

Thanks for the Curtice link but only a very, very few Scots will have even heard of him let alone visited his website.

Oh, and thanks for the WoS link but again very few normal people go there. Its the home of a couple of hundred rancid cybernats who waste their days on there worshipping at the feet of their hero; "Rev" Stu (who, incidentally, at 45, still lives in Bath, Somerset with his Mum) rather than getting out of their bedrooms and trying to persuade real people. Long may they stay in their nasty little cyberbubble.

Anyway, anyone who walked into Balvicar Stores this morning will know of the TNS poll result as it stared us all in the face as we walked past the newspaper shelves.

Indeed.

It says:

'but number of 'don't knows' surges, leaving referendum race wide open'

(Or didn't you notice that bit? It's in big print right under the headline)

Invalid and biased poll.

.http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/s ... l-time-low

In another shock poll published recently by Unionists For Independence 72% of 697 people believed that they were the wrong people being asked the wrong question when they were in a hurry to be somewhere else but that they would probably vote one way or the other (or not) when the referendum comes round. These results, when properly weighted, adjusted for inflation, and the effects of the Medieval Warm Period discounted, indicate growing support for one side or the other (or possibly neither or both). According to Professor Fragmore Knuckleduster-ffinch of pollsters YouFools 81% of people will not decide how they will vote until they know what a majority of 1,323 carefully selected strangers will do, thus proving the huge value of polls published a year before the actual vote. A spokesman for somebody else said this was cobblers although critics have pointed out that his aunt was an extra in Braveheart.

NickB wrote:Indeed.

(Or didn't you notice that bit? It's in big print right under the headline)

Yes, I did, but millions of my fellow Scots hurrying to work/shop or whatever will only have seen the main headline:

"SUPPORT FOR YES VOTE DROPS TO LESS THAN 25%"

That's the point. Don't you get it?

YeSNP are losing the message battle badly because our national media all believe that staying in the Union, being part of a bigger and wealthier family, is the best future for our country.

Isn't it wonderful how YeSNP types reject any poll showing Yes doing badly (which is the vast majority) as invalid and biased but, of course, any poll showing Yes improving are portrayed as being whiter than white .

A reminder.

Cybernats had a coordinated campaign to register themselves on the Panelbase panels for referendum polls. Even they must realise that the figures produced by the recent SNP Panelbase poll are massively skewed towards Yes because of their own infiltration. Laughable.

I thought your Scotlandshire spoof rather amusing. Well done.

longshanks wrote:
I thought your Scotlandshire spoof rather amusing. Well done.

As you have been told several times, I am not Herby Dice. Suggesting that I am is mischievous at best. I believe Herby has warned you about this type of trolling already. I'll leave any further action up to him in this case.

longshanks wrote:
Cybernats had a coordinated campaign to register themselves on the Panelbase panels for referendum polls. Even they must realise that the figures produced by the recent SNP Panelbase poll are massively skewed towards Yes because of their own infiltration.

And your evidence for this wild assertion is?

NickB wrote:

longshanks wrote:
Cybernats had a coordinated campaign to register themselves on the Panelbase panels for referendum polls. Even they must realise that the figures produced by the recent SNP Panelbase poll are massively skewed towards Yes because of their own infiltration.

And your evidence for this wild assertion is?

NickB wrote:

longshanks wrote:
I thought your Scotlandshire spoof rather amusing. Well done.

As you have been told several times, I am not Herby Dice. Suggesting that I am is mischievous at best. I believe Herby has warned you about this type of trolling already. I'll leave any further action up to him in this case.

Memory fails me at times. Yes. I now recall you did say you're not Herby Dice. Apologies. Its clearly something you're rather sensitive about so I'll try very hard not to repeat the lapse.

500 posts

I see. your evidence for your ludicrous claim that Panelbase has been compromised is based on a few ( quite possibly forged) screenshotted tweets from anonymous twitter accounts.

Well, that's bound to be true then . . .

longshanks wrote:
Memory fails me at times.

No it does not. You know very well what you are doing and it is disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise. It is all rather childish to be frank. I would have thought it beneath you, but obviously I have misjudged you.

Don't do it again, there's a good chap.

Wilko.

NickB wrote:I see. your evidence for your ludicrous claim that Panelbase has been compromised is based on a few ( quite possibly forged) screenshotted tweets from anonymous twitter accounts.

Well, that's bound to be true then . . .

Fair enough. I can see why you might have doubts.

Just a couple of more points though.

1. YouGov used to be SNP's pollsters of choice. I wonder why they decided to switch to Panelbase ?

2. YesScotland's e.mail account was recently hacked (wikileak style). Probably all sub judice now so not much should be said but one can speculate that whoever now possess copies of all YesScotland emails since they were founded by Alex Salmond is not their friend. One can be sure that at the right time the contents will be leaked, presumably from a safe jurisdiction, to the press.

Now, I just wonder, wonder mind, if there is truth in the, clearly ludicrous as you claim, accusation of a cybernat compromise of the Panelbase referendum polling panel?

Merely a thought of course.

Interesting times eh ?

NickB wrote:I see. your evidence for your ludicrous claim that Panelbase has been compromised is based on a few ( quite possibly forged) screenshotted tweets from anonymous twitter accounts.

Well, that's bound to be true then . . .

It would be commercial suicide for Panelbase to admit they have been infiltrated en-masse by YeSNP cybernats but.......

A LEADING polling organisation has banned new members from contributing to future polls on Scottish independence amid concerns that it has been swamped by Nationalists seeking to “influence” the results.

Panelbase says it is taking the measure after online speculation about an “organised sign-up” of Yes campaigners – although it insists that new recruits to its base of polling respondents has had no significant impact on results.

“As a precaution, between now and the referendum we will not be including results from panel members who joined more recently than June 2013. This only applies to political polls.”

http://archive.is/NExpF

Hmmm. Not a ludicrous claim then.

Panelbase also said that any YeSNP cybertroll mass sign up recently did not influence the rescent outlier poll. Of course they HAD to say that.

longshanks wrote:Hmmm. Not a ludicrous claim then.

Panelbase also said that any YeSNP cybertroll mass sign up recently did not influence the rescent outlier poll. Of course they HAD to say that.

I'm rather surprised they said anything at all, as public denial is often seen as guilt. I imagine that pro-independence organisations are likely to shun Panelbase now as this accusation and the PB response will be thrown up to challenge any future PB polls on independence commissioned by Pro groups. Still,. I guess they can afford to lose this work as indy polls will only form a minute part of their business.

As for 'mass sign-up' - has anyone actually got any figures? Only six twitter accounts are shown in the 'damning evidence,' so unless there are more it is hardly a mass anything. Does anyone even know who really owned/operated the screenshotted Twitter accounts?

And why would normal weighting techniques not eliminate any bias caused by the alleged mass sign-up?

Interesting times.

You're clearly in denial.

Panelbase would not have deleted all sign ups since 1st June for Referendum panels without reason.

A question now being asked is why did the SNP switch from YouGov (their longtime pollist of choice) to Panelbase all of a sudden ?

The smoking gun may well be found within the stolen emails. Every email sent and received between Nicola, Alex et al and YesScotland is now in the hands of people who want to preserve the family which is the Union. If a connection, even as "mild" as tacit approval (eg an email which says "why not") between the manipulation of opinion polls and Nicola is exposed then its game over.

These people, and their journalist contacts, first need to find a way of releasing the emails without fear of prosecution for their theft. They will. Maybe just as important is the timing of that release.

The YeSNPers who gained comfort from the outlier Panelbase poll may, just may, be pooping their pants right now.

.
You have a colourful imagination.

NickB wrote:.
You have a colourful imagination.

Lets just wait and see eh ?

This YeSNP opinion poll manipulation scandal has legs.

Another week, another poll.

Yes 26 %
No 65%

So four polls in ten days. Yes scores as follows:

29%
44%
25 %
26 %

Obvious outlier there; the SNP poll by Panelbase. Interestingly Panelbase suspect a mass sign up to the referendum panel by YeSNPers and have cancelled all new sign ups sign 1/6/13. Also, interestingly, the SNP have not given an explanation as to why they switched from their longtime pollster of choice (YouGov) to Panelbase.

Now our leading entrepreneur states his position:



The media have it right: