Scottish Independence: For better or for worse:

[Pentlandpirate]

This is the thread to discuss what will be different, better or worse, if Scotland leaves the UK or votes to remains within it.

Some might consider the Union of Scotland and England as a marriage. Like many marriages it is not perfect but for so long there have been few thoughts of divorce. As the child of this union I don't want my mother country to split. The 'family' I live with has had only minor internal tensions but in general I am content with life and the thought of breaking up the family home is one that I dread. My loyalties lie equally with lands of both my parents. In marriage we do generally commit to loving each other for better, for worse and in sickness and in health. I've thought about what life might be like should they divorce, and for me, I'm sure, splitting would mean more pain than gain. The benefits simply do not outweigh the losses. And like with any divorce, bound to be acrimonious, I'm sure it will come at a terrible cost (the lawyers will have a field day).

There are thousands of aspects to the life we take for granted that could be affected by Scotland separating from the rest of the UK. Lets try to bring out those differences for better and worse of both separation and staying together.

Things that have been touched on before like mobile phone roaming charges, like vehicle taxation, like the cost of postage to remote rural areas, like defence, like the possibility that rUK might leave the EU, like the possibility that an independent Scotland might not immediately join the EU, like all the UK institutions that might have to set up by an independent Scotland, like currency, like pensions, like national debt, like immigration, like free university places for foreign students, etc, etc. What are the little things that nationally might not be worthy of mention or seem irrelevant or indeed pure scaremongering, but differences that may be very relevant to us as individuals who all have such different lives and interests. Lets see what differences we can highlight.

To start with, the Postal service. Surely a separate Scotland would have to reduce the service, increase charges or subsidise postage through greater taxation, to huge areas of rural Scotland? Is this one aspect of life we take for granted where an independent Scotland loses out?

[longshanks]

A very good idea PP; this thread.



Lets keep it serious and lets have no shouts of "scaremongering" or "cloud-cuckoo land" unless backed by hard data.



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As an ex-British Army SNCO I take a keen interest in the SNP plans and pronouncements as to the shape of an independent Scotland's army.

Here's a thought I had this morning in the bath;

#Scots serving in our new Scottish army will no longer have ready access to Sandhurst but, rather, will have to compete with officer cadets from places such as Malaysia, Pakistan, UAE etc for the 75 places allocated annually to "foreign" cadets.#

[longshanks]

Considering the Yes Scotland slogan now:

"A Fairer, More Equal and Greener4 society"

So far (but we are waiting for the SNP Government's Autumn White Paper to explain this to be fair) we have not been told the policies which will achieve this.

~The Greener bit can be dismissed because we will be a country reliant on the sale of Global Warming causing oil~

So what policies would be needed for "fair" and "equal". That's fairly easy to predict as we know the causes of unfairness and inequality in Scotland so:

#An independent Scotland will, in order to fulfill that slogan/promise:

Abolish private education.

Abolish private healthcare.

Confiscate private landholdings and redistribute to communities.

Introduce a redistributive tax regime:
ie: up to 100% Inheritance Tax, much higher Capital Gains Tax, Much higher Income Tax for middle and high earners to pay for much higher welfare benefits and much lower or no tax for below average earners.#

[Pentlandpirate]

I thought you said we had to be serious!

Introduce a redistributive tax regime:
ie: up to 100% Inheritance Tax, much higher Capital Gains Tax, Much higher Income Tax for middle and high earners to pay for much higher welfare benefits and much lower or no tax for below average earners.

It just isn't going to happen, and it is just laughable to suggest it would be, even by the fairest of them all, the fairy Godmother Alex Salmond. But as you suggest, what is 'fair', how do you make the country 'fairer' for all? How do you make it fairer for those who don't want an independent country? Redistribute wealth by taxing the wealthier more and they leave, or make greater efforts to avoid tax, which gives less tax revenue to share out. Why is it fairer to tax someone who works harder a greater percentage of their greater income? That way higher earners end up paying not just twice as much tax, but 10, 20, 30, even more times tax as an average income earner. What's fairer about that? And what's fair about inheritance tax?

As for a defence force, it will be totally ineffective and absurdly expensive for Scotland to operate and maintain its two Typhoon fighters and six Challenger tanks. Scotland's soldiers will become one become one of it's best exports, but as they go where the action is to the British forces, they will be tax exiles, contributing nothing to the Scottish economy or Scotland's defence. I believe a poll of Scottish service people suggested 95% would join rUK forces rather than join a Scottish defence farce. Look at Ireland's defence force. It is fine for stopping drug smuggling yachts, but when forced to defend the nation it would be totally overwhelmed, a bit like the 32 Commandos left to defend The Falklands against 10,000 Argentinians. The British Commandos gave a great fight but against a serious force they were never going to be able to stop the Argentinians. Britain's Armed Forces are already an expensive commodity. A smaller force for Scotland with the same potency per man is likely to be far more expensive and much less adaptable to differing defence situations.

If Scotland separates how many organisations and government departments will it have to set up from afresh? Does anyone know and at what cost?

[Pentlandpirate]

Deloitte estimates UK tax revenues from North Sea production will decline from £11.2 billion in 2011-12 to £3.7 billion in 2017-18. We can't count on North Sea oil to pay for our future.

[longshanks]

Post independence it is promised that all the lost regiments will be restored and, of particular interest to us here, The Argyll's will be restored to full strength from the current muster of 100 on permanent ceremonials at Stirling.

The Argyll's on parade in Stirling on 14th June:



.....but one must worry about recruitment post independence.

One platoon of Scottish soldiers in response to the survey referred to by PP above responded:

30; join British Army
1 ; Don't know
1 ; Join Scottish Army

Overall 95% said they would join the British Army rather than ours if Scotland were independent.

[jimcee]

So you two are having a field day without any opposition from the Yes camp. If it is a forum for discussion and debate, surely the cohorts of the Yes persuasion have got to make their presence felt. But unfortunately, should that transpire then the thing will degenerate into the usual slanging match. But maybe that is what the outside punters who read these postings, but don't contribute want, a good old slanging match. And with still over a year to go before R day this subject will rival the Mousetrap for longevity.

[Pentlandpirate]

They don't all look like they are from Argyll, but still I have the highest regard for Britain's armed forces. But I don't see how realistically all the lost Scottish regiments can be restored......Camerons, Seaforths, etc. There are many, many great Scottish regiments that have disappeared since the Crimean era and the Thin Red Line.

In a more positive note for Scottish Independence, it is agreed by most, that in principle, it is best that local people make local decisions. Scotland already has that in terms of it's own Parliament and local councils. It doesn't have powers over everything, but it already has more than enough to be able to make a significant difference, and it could be using those to give Scots some of the things they want. But the Scottish Government's performance so far hasn't impressed; not enough to give the majority, so far, the encouragement to take a leap of faith in them, and get behind independence. In some ways it is sad, that given the opportunity they make such a hash of it.

[longshanks]

Continuing on the theme of armed forces post-independence lets look at what the Yes campaign has told us so far about our future defence capabilities.

#Alex Salmond has made a firm promise that the Scottish regiments will be restored. Personally I approve of this. However it does add up to 14,000 regimental soldiers.
#Yes Scotland have said our armed forces will have a budget of £2.5 billion.
#Yes Scotland have told us that our armed forces will have a total roll of 15,000 service personnel.

Now I start to worry about the competence of these promises.

If we are to have 14,000 regimental soldiers that leaves only 1,000 personnel left to be allocated to our navy, air force, logistics corps, medical corps, engineering corps, military police, military intelligence, welfare, pay corps etc etc.

It doesn't add up.

Nor does the £2.5 billion.

How much will a squadron of typhoons plus associated refuelling and electronic warfare aircraft cost ?

Or a couple of frigates ?

But my biggest worry is the protection of our biggest assets, the oilfields.

Currently, if they should be threatened we can be certain that the might of the Royal Navy, the RAF and the SBS will be straight there. After independence though ?

Hopefully the SNP government's much awaited White Paper will give full detail as to the numbers, cost, equipment and priorities of our armed forces should we vote Yes.

We know fully how we will be defended today. But post independence ?

[NickB]

But the Scottish Government's performance so far hasn't impressed; not enough to give the majority, so far, the encouragement to take a leap of faith in them, and get behind independence. In some ways it is sad, that given the opportunity they make such a hash of it.

Salmond has the highest satisfaction rating of any UK party leader and the SNP comfortably held Donside.

Some hash!

[Pentlandpirate]

Is that something you made up or are you confusing your independence party leaders? The ipsos MORI poll seems to disagree with you http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/busi ... 09.article .

[MonaLott]

PP & LS, as you pair seem to have plenty time to spend writing this stuff, why not spend 30 minutes listening to Nicola answering (perhaps!) some of your questions and concerns? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23126622

[Pentlandpirate]

If actions are greater than words I would say that in the case of the Yes campaign, not only do so many of the words ring hollow, but the actions are lamentably weak to non-existent too. Alex Salmond says this is the phoney war, but it isn't really. It's just his excuse to try to mask the fact that they genuinely haven't got ideas that hold water. And possibly the reason why, despite what NickB says, his popularity is actually falling (according to the ipsos MORI poll) and even he is now second to Nicola Sturgeon.

[longshanks]

...... and the SNP comfortably held Donside.

Some hash!

You what !

As Sir Alex Ferguson said Donside was "squeeky bum time" for the SNP !

The SNP's second safest seat...

#Majority reduced by 5,500.
#9% swing to Labour.
#15% fall in share of vote.

Talking of that Scots' Icon....



and another...

[jimcee]

Could one of you protagonists from the Yes/No camps, please enlighten a non football interest member of the public into what precisely is a "Squeaky Bum Time".
Or am I missing the point, is it maybe a political aside ?

[Foxglove]

Jim...this forum would be 'Pants' without you...lol!

[Beetlejuice]

Jim, you'll have experienced that "squeaky bum" feeling if you've ever been happily hiking along the greensward, gazing at the inspiring scenery, listening to the charming birdsong - then suddenly looked down and realised that if you'd hiked just ... one ... more ... step you'd have rambled straight over the edge of a 500ft precipice.
Know what I mean?

[jimcee]

Given the above two replies to my query, I think I will have to resort to asking (Sir) A. Ferguson what he means.
The gist of the two replies seem to suggest that it is a situation relating to a cliffhanger, and that there is some doubt about the outcome.
But, for the life of me I cannot see what the anatomical reference has to do with it.
And while on the subject, what have "pants" got to do with it ?
I also notice from the replies that the ding-dongers have kept a low profile on this one - beneath their contempt? or in danger of producing a note of levity into a serious political issue (300 years in the making).

[MonaLott]

Jim, it means a time of stress, referring to the noise made when you are wriggling uncomfortably in your armchair. Just a phrase attributed by the boy from Govan who made good. Probably also the sound to be made by PP and LS when the Yes/No vote comes around next autumn!

[DonnieC]

I have to point out that the boy from Govan 'who done good' wusnae me, despite the fact that we did go to the same School but in separate years.

Jim, 'Pants' is a relatively new expession which means you disagree with something or you find something, perhaps offensive - think of the contents of the self same garment.

On a related vein 'Squeaky Bum Time' refers to a time in ones life when the outcome of something might be worrying or in doubt to the extent that one might be shitting oneself as to the outcome.

It's perhaps, when, in times of extreme stress one maybe unable to exercise sufficient sphincter control and the passage of a high pitched flatulent 'squeak' is let rip - sometimes with an escapee of small feacal matter!

In times of severe stress total evacuation occurs (in deep XXXX!) and this is considered socially unacceptable except, of course on Seil Chat, where it is avidly encouraged - witness above!

Hope this helps Jim