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Support for Scottish independence slumps
By Simon Johnson, Scottish Political Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:20AM BST 30/04/2008
Support for Scottish independence is at an all-time low, with fewer than one in five voters north of the Border wanting to break up Britain.
A poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov – the most in-depth analysis yet of attitudes to constitutional change – shows that only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities.

In another blow for Mr Salmond as he marks his first year of power, the poll shows that more Scots blame the First Minister than Westminster for the rows that have broken out between the two since last May.

But the SNP's support in a snap Holyrood and general election has soared over the past year, albeit by nowhere near the amount required to meet Mr Salmond's target of taking 20 Westminster seats.

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The First Minister's personal approval ratings are also streets ahead of his counterparts in the Unionist parties, with more than half of Scots thinking he is doing a good job, compared with barely one in five for Wendy Alexander, the Scottish Labour leader.

There is also no sign of a Conservative revival, with a majority saying the so-called "Cameron effect" would have no effect or even make them less likely to back the party.

Last night political experts said that the poll findings were a huge setback for Mr Salmond's strategy of increasing support for independence by governing well at Holyrood.

Instead, they suggested that the results indicated that Scots were happier than ever with having their own parliament but still being part of the United Kingdom. Despite Alistair Darling's troubles at the Treasury, the poll shows that voters trust Westminster far more with their money than Holyrood and do not want more tax powers for Scotland.

The Nationalists have trumpeted two recent polls that placed support for independence at about 40 per cent – much higher than a year ago.

But these surveys gave voters a choice of the status-quo and separation, gearing the question towards the latter. The YouGov poll shows 59 per cent of Scots would vote in a referendum to retain the Scottish Parliament in a similar form, with only 25 per cent in favour of a completely separate state outside the UK – the same level as when the SNP took power.

When a third option of giving Holyrood more powers is added, support for independence dropped to 19 per cent, a decline of four percentage points since last May.

The figure is smaller than the previous lowest level of support for breaking up Britain, 23 per cent, recorded in a survey by the Scottish Centre for Social Research last year.

In contrast, 38 per cent of people backed giving Holyrood more powers – the same as a year ago – and 34 per cent supported the status-quo, up nine percentage points.

Asked about their experience of devolution, 58 per cent of Scots agreed that Scottish ministers have operated effectively within the powers they have and "the best of both worlds" is achieved by remaining part of the UK. Only 29 per cent said the past nine years showed Scotland was capable of governing itself and didn't need to stay in the UK.

The result is also a blow to one of the main tenets of SNP strategy – calling for changes in reserved areas and lamenting not having the power to legislate in these areas.

The poll also suggests that voters are tiring of another tactic in their campaign for independence – publicly denouncing Westminster.

Since last May, rows have raged between London and Edinburgh, starting with Mr Salmond insinuating that a deal had been signed to free the Lockerbie bomber and, recently, claiming Scotland was cheated out of £120million of prison spending.

Asked who is to blame, 38 per cent said it was Mr Salmond's fault and agreed that he is out to cause trouble so he can persuade voters Scotland should be independent. Slightly fewer, 35 per cent, blamed London, agreeing that Labour does not care about Scotland or give the Executive enough money.

The same proportion agreed with the First Minister's claim that the Government is "bullying" Scotland, while 38 per cent opposed that statement. However, the results of both questions were skewed towards Mr Salmond by the overwhelming proportion of SNP supporters who blamed the Government.

The responses also suggested that Scots do not trust Holyrood with their money and prefer the current arrangement of a block grant from Westminster using the Barnett formula.

This gives Scots £1,500 more per head than their English counterparts, and 61 per cent of respondents said the Executive should learn to cut its cloth accordingly.

More than half of people interviewed (54 per cent) supported the current arrangements, while only 20 per cent said Scottish ministers should levy their own taxes to raise most of their income.

However, there was better news for Mr Salmond on voting intentions at Holyrood and Westminster elections. The poll gives the Nationalists 36 per cent in the constituency vote, five points ahead of Labour on 31 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 15 per cent, the Tories on 13 per cent and other parties four per cent.

On the regional list vote, the SNP won 37 per cent support, Labour 28 per cent, the Lib Dems and Tories 13 per cent each and other parties nine per cent.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said this would see the SNP winning 51 seats, an increase of four, Labour dropping one to 45, the Tories and Lib Dems both getting 16 and the Greens a single MSP.

In a Westminster election, Labour would win 34 per cent of the vote, down six points on its 2005 level, while the Nationalists would almost double their support, from 18 per cent to 30 per cent. This is enough for the SNP to win four seats, says Prof Anthony King of Essex University — short of the 20 Mr Salmond claimed would make Westminster “dance to a Scottish jig”.

Tory support would increase slightly to 17 per cent, while the Lib Dems would fall to 14 per cent, with other parties getting six per cent.

But asked about David Cameron, only five per cent said his leadership of the Tory party made it more likely they would vote Conservative at a Holyrood election and 13 per cent at a Westminster one.

More people — 12 and 14 per cent respectively — said Mr Cameron made it less likely they would vote Tory, while 60 and 53 per cent respectively said he made no difference and they would not vote Conservative anyway.

Mr Salmond’s performance as First Minister won plaudits from more than twice the proportion of respondents (53 per cent) than Mr Brown’s as Prime Minister (26 per cent).

A third of voters disliked the SNP leader’s tenure, compared to two thirds (63 per cent) with Mr Brown’s.

In another fillip for Mr Salmond, 43 per cent of voters said he made the best First Minister, compared to only 11 per cent for Miss Alexander, his supposed main rival for the post.

Only 21 per cent of voters thought she is doing a good job, compared to a massive 60 per cent who do not.

Almost twice as many, 41 per cent, said Annabel Goldie was doing well as Scottish Tory leader, with Nicol Stephen winning 27 per cent support for his performance as Scottish Lib Dem leader.