Nicola's seen the latest Ashcroft polls

[NickB]

.
An amusing tweet . . . (not mine, I hasten to add)

[Stevie Jarron]

Gaurdian article suggests -

"Labour's Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander set to lose seats to SNP - Lord Ashcroft poll"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... o-snp-poll

"In a blog analysing his poll, (Lord) Ashcroft, who recently gave up his seat in the House of Lords, said the SNP surge had clearly not subsided. He suggested that some Conservatives could vote tactically for Murphy to keep the SNP out."

Murphy is 9 points behind in East Renfrewshire and Alexander 11 points in Paisley. I don't think there are enough Tories in the 2 constituancies to turn those margins around!


S

[Bill McDicken]

Murphy is 9 points behind in East Renfrewshire and Alexander 11 points in Paisley. I don't think there are enough Tories in the 2 constituancies to turn those margins around!

I don't know about Paisley but East Ren. is Conservative territory that includes Newton Mearns, Whitecraigs, Uplawmoor, Giffnock etc. Though I reckon these good old fashioned Tories would rather commit Seppuku than vote Labour.

[Stevie Jarron]

Stranger things have happened in politics Bill!

S

[jimcee]

What's with this Ashcroft (how did he become a lord?) soothsayer?
If perchance, the SNP are the tail wagging the Westminster dog, then maybe Ashcroft is the tail wagging the SNP dog - the man is not doing all this gerrymandering because he is cheesed off with Sudoku.

[Bill McDicken]

If perchance, the SNP are the tail wagging the Westminster dog, then maybe Ashcroft is the tail wagging the SNP dog .

I'm intrigued, how could he do that?

[jimcee]

Look at it this way B. mcD.
This Lord A who was either born with a silver spoon in his mouth, or was kicked upstairs because of political largesse, has been making political SNP forecasts. Apart from him maybe losing currently in the peever championships, he must have some political agenda in his current machinations. This must be either in support, or against the SNP - personally it would appear to be in support.
Now it is an unfortunate fact of political life that large scale contributors and benefactors, are not entirely altruistic, and expect some patronage resulting from their largesse - hence my suggestion that the SNP would look kindly on any suggestion emanating from the said Lord.

[Stevie Jarron]

Hi Jim,

Read his biography here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_As ... s_activity

See if you can read into his lifechoices and see where he and the SNP are in cahoots.

I'd be interested to hear your theories.

Regards Stevie

[Bill McDicken]

Jim, are you suggesting Ashcroft is 'cooking the books' in favour of the SNP when it comes to reporting the results of his polls?

[Bill McDicken]

This Lord A who was either born with a silver spoon in his mouth, or was kicked upstairs because of political largesse,

I've just had a look at Stevie's 'Wiki' link and it would appear that the good Lord 'A' had rather humble beginnings, rising up the rich list by his own ruthless cunning. Any link, political or financial, to the SNP is very difficult to imagine.

[jimcee]

Having now waded through the Wikipedia report on Lord Ashcroft, at Steve J's suggestion, I have to admit that the "silver spoon" suggestion does not appear to fit the circumstances.
It would appear that he is a bit of a "wheeler and dealer", who has made some lucrative decisions, financially, but at the same time having some doubtful transactions, and a typical "non-dom" - which is currently in the spotlight.
He appears to have been nominated by William Hague into the Lords. Here William Hague appears to have joined his crony D.Cameron in some doubtful appointees.
However all that has nothing to do with Lord A's current actions on the polling scene.
Given his Conservative credentials, it is surprising that he appears to be espousing the SNP bandwagon, when they are in no sense, bedfellows.
But maybe other readers of these jottings can throw some light on to his motives

[Stevie Jarron]

Perhaps it's just true Jim!

Shocker!


S

[NickB]

Given his Conservative credentials, it is surprising that he appears to be espousing the SNP bandwagon, when they are in no sense, bedfellows.
But maybe other readers of these jottings can throw some light on to his motives

He is running a series of opinion polls. Unless you think he is fiddling the figures he can hardly be accused of 'espousing the SNP bandwagon'

If he has a motive I would suggest one of two:

a) He is wishing to promote complacency in the SNP and their supporters in the hope of slowing down the campaign momentum

or

b) The Tories really do want the SNP to wipe Labour out in Scotland, irrespective of future problems they may be storing up

[Stevie Jarron]

Was going to run out a loooong email on how the way these polls are done, they weigh bias to ensure that no one can just ask their mates a question and get the answer they want etc etc.

But I'm going for B



S

[NickB]

. . . they weigh bias to ensure that no one can just ask their mates a question and get the answer they want etc etc.

I don't think Ashcroft is fiddling the results, but he obviously wants the news about what is happening to get out.

nn Stevie

[Gavin Rae]

For info

This is what Ashcroft says about his polling interests - since resigning from the Lords it would appear that he likes to think of himself as The Pollfather ' !!!


'My interest in polling began in the run-up to the 2005 general election, when I commissioned research to find out why the Conservative Party had failed to recover from its crushing defeat in 1997. I published the collected results in Smell The Coffee: A Wake-Up Call For The Conservative Party. David Cameron subsequently asked me to become Deputy Chairman of the Party with responsibility for target seats and opinion research. In this role I continued to offer objective analysis of public opinion – analysis that was, to varying degrees, acted upon. Minority Verdict, which I published after the 2010 election, draws on polling evidence to explain why the result of that election was as good as it was for the Conservatives, but no better.

Since the 2010 election I have kept up the supply of political polling. The difference is that rather than presenting it privately to David Cameron or the Shadow Cabinet, as I once did, I now publish my research in full for anyone to read.

The value of this work lies in its objectivity. Though I myself am not impartial – I’m a Tory, and always will be – commentators from across the political spectrum have noted that the research is professionally conducted and reliable. Some of the research yields encouraging conclusions for the Conservatives, and some of it does not.

Most important of all, the reports do not convey my views, but those of the voters.

Why do I do it? Several reasons. The interaction between politicians and voters is fascinating in itself. I like to offer new evidence as to how voters see things, and to provoke discussion and debate.

And if it doesn’t sound too pompous, there is an element of public service in keeping politicians on their toes. If my research has a unifying theme, it is to remind politicians and parties what matters and what their priorities should be – the voters and the things they care about.'

Snoman

[Bill McDicken]

Ashcroft's explanation of his motives (Gavin's post) does have a ring of plausibility about it, and anyway the consequences of being caught fiddling the results would be catastrophic for Ashcroft and the Tories.
He's a clever operator with a dodgy past but on this one I reckon his polls are as sound as any.
Though his 'Wiki' entry made me think of a sort of 'Arthur Daley' on steroids !

[Stevie Jarron]

I think...



the Tory strategy is to assist in the wipe out of Labour in Scotland and try and turn people away from Labour south of the border by their "the SNP are the bogeyman" approach that they have latched their wagon onto.

Their chums, like Ashcroft are publishing the polls and ramping up the hate filled retoric about how disasterous a Labour/SNP pact would be for the country.

But as with the poorly timed, delivered and disengenuus drivel from Ed Miliband yesterday about the Tories bombing Libia with no plan for after the battle...

Regradless of who wins the election, the House of commons will have to deal with a large "pack" of SNP MPs down there as part of a loose coalition or in opposition.

It seems crazy that the Tories are preparing to into power (possibly) with either a slim majority or as a hung parliament coalition with DUP/UKIP/Lib Dem with the now certainty of a strong (and really pissed off) opposition in Labour and the SNP who will vote down every desicion they make. To the point of pulling down the government.

This will force Labour to reapproach an SNP coalition, probably giving us 5 years of hellish anti-Scottish sentiment from the mainstream media.

The alternative is that the Tories anticipate an outright win and or at least a useable minority and hope to rely on Labour to back them in opposition an a bizarre loose coalition to get votes through the house. There is liitle between them in policy and retoric!

And one last thing, before anyone changes their mind and thinks about voting Labour... here is what the mainstream media does to bend the will of the voters http://wingsoverscotland.com/scottish-c ... s-to-halt/

I saw this being done at rallies during the referendum. Free press!!! Anyone?

[jimcee]

Well that Ashcroft subject certainly engendered a lot of postings.
But no clear motive from anyone apart from NB who is ambivalent.
However I am glad to see that Bill McD shares my general opinion about the said Lord and his rise to power and wealth.
Another notable event was S.Jarron's joining the bandwagon of links to SNP propaganda with reference to "Wings over Scotland".
It is probable that you "dyed in the wool" political activists, of whatever persuasion, rely on your daily fix (like coffee) for comforting news (spin) to get you through the day in a happy state, from media sympathetic to your cause. And there is plenty to choose from - whatever your personal standpoint.
Finally, while in no way seeing what the justification of Mr Milliband's remarks on Libya have in the current election scenario. he does have a general point that British (and others) participation in trying to police states which are not toeing the most humane principals, has been a disaster in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and no doubt would have been no more effecive in Syria .But that is another ball game. I could enlarge on that under a different thread if someone out there takes objection to my views.

[Stevie Jarron]

propaganda - prɒpəˈɡandə/ noun
1. information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote a political cause or point of view.

I think you'll find what Wings over Scotland were pointing out was Labour's propoganda machine.

You can't just say that everything posted in favour of one political view over another is a lie!

I am happy to expand the conversation any way you wish Jim.