Panelbase poll - Scotsman report on YES lead

[NickB]

Amazingly, the Scotsman carried a report on the latest Panelbase poll yesterday which for once was relatively devoid of spin.

The poll asked the actual referendum question, and the result was Yes 44% No 43%

Some of you may remember that Panelbase was the first polling organisation to show the SNP in the lead during the 2011 Holyrood election campaign.

You can read the Scotsman's report HERE

[longshanks]

Ah; another poll out today puts YES at 25%. Oooops.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/ ... x.22059592

[NickB]

Seems indyref polls are a bit like buses - none for ages then two (or in this case three) come along at once.

Haven't had any time to look into this one in any detail- and neither have you.

In the end it will all come down to this:

[longshanks]

The huge problem with "Rev" Stu Campbell's pretty little fake ballot paper is the No line should show two flags; Union flag AND Saltire, because that will be the reality........but of course that would not appeal to the baser instincts which is WoS' constituency.

[NickB]

Aye sure.

If there is a No vote you can guarantee that Westminster will take steps to ensure there can never be another opportunity.

Not many people realise that it is within the power of Westminster to curtail or abolish the Scottish parliament. There is only one way to prevent that . . .

[longshanks]

Aye sure.

If there is a No vote you can guarantee that Westminster will take steps to ensure there can never be another opportunity.

No you can't. What baseless tosh NickB !

Not many people realise that it is within the power of Westminster to curtail or abolish the Scottish parliament. There is only one way to prevent that . . .

Wow . Are you YeSNP types really so low in confidence now that you have to resort to fearmongering ?

Is this Nicola's latest tactic in the build up to Salmond's Referendum ? Project Fearty ?

[NickB]

No you can't. What baseless tosh NickB !

There should be no consolation prizes in the event of the Yes campaign losing the referendum, writes Michael Kelly

[longshanks]

I'm sorry NickB but if you believe the rantings of an extreme idiot in his dotage, who has zero, zero, influence over Government policy and is an acknowledged enemy of the British Establishment then I fear for your judgement.

To be canvassing on the weird horror story that unless one votes Yes the Scottish Parliament will be abolished is really scraping the barrel.

As Salmond said last night the only way he will win is by arguing positives.

You need to listen to the dear leader.

[longshanks]

[longshanks]

[NickB]

That's a misleading and fundamentally dishonest image.

1. Where they’ve said 3%, they actually mean 2%. They’re referring to a table on page 9 of this poll data which asked Scots what they thought the priority of the Scottish Government should be. The number who said “independence” was 15 people out of 727, or 2%.

2. The question had in fact asked people about the priorities of “the Scottish Government”, rather than “Alex Salmond”.

3. The option “The economy” was in reality chosen by 18% of respondents, less than half the 41% claimed. (If you bundle in the separate option of “Creating jobs”, which isn’t mentioned in the graph, you still only get to 40%.)

4. The actual figure given by respondents for “Welfare” was 7%, not 2%, and it’s actually listed in the answer options as “Welfare reform“ (our emphasis), which is a very different proposition indeed.

5. But the key lie here is that none of those figures actually come from the full poll sample. As first noticed by the eagle-eyed Gary Dunion over at Bright Green Scotland, they’re taken only from the people who thought the Scottish Government’s current priorities were wrong.

Almost 30% of those sampled – the people who’d said that the Scottish Government’s current priorities were correct – were totally excluded from the statistics.

There appears to be no way of discerning what those people thought from the poll data. 49% of the full sample had said they thought independence was the current priority, but there appears to be no way of knowing how many of them thought that was a good thing and how many objected to it.

There is, therefore, no possible way of determining from the figures what the real percentage of people who think the Scottish Government’s priority should be independence is. It could, we think, be anywhere from 2% to 32% based on those numbers, and probably at the upper end of that scale. The only thing we can say with any reasonable degree of certainty is that it almost certainly isn’t 3%.

The figures, then, are not only multiply wrong, but based on an utterly meaningless premise. It’s a shambolically-constructed piece of polling, which “Better Together” has then mangled in whole new ways to render it complete gibberish.

Despite numerous people notifying them of the unholy mess, the No camp is blithely continuing to host the image on its website. The media is reporting its hideous car-crash of fabrications as gospel, and (as you’d expect) the Herald’s moderators are working overtime deleting the comments of anyone pointing out the truth.

[longshanks]

Well if the "rev" Stu at Wangsoverscotland says so it must be so; seeing as you have copied and pasted his cybernat rant (from his bedroom at his Mum's house in Bath, Somerset) in its entirety.

Aye right.

[NickB]

.
You seem to be obsessed with WOS, Longshanker.