Today's (1st September) YouGov poll

[NickB]

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If you're part of the ever-diminishing readership of Scotland's alleged 'quality' Sunday papers you will have seen the result of the latest Yougov poll this morning. The poll was commissioned by Devo Plus, which “… is a cross-party and non-party grouping which has been set up by Reform Scotland to promote the idea of the Scottish Parliament”

Reform Scotland “… is a public policy institute or ‘think tank’ which was established as a separate Scottish charity, completely independent of any political party or any other organisation”

Reform Scotland People:

Geoff Mawdsley – Director…For the 8 years prior to that, he had been Chief Political Adviser to the leader of the Scottish Conservative Party.

Alison Payne – Research Director
…She began her career within the Scottish Conservative MSPs’ Research Unit, going on to spend four years as Head of Research. She later went on to become Political Adviser to Annabel Goldie MSP, Leader of the Scottish Conservative Group of MSPs.

So - not so non-party-political perhaps. However, this is largely irrelevant and is provided for interest only. What is more significant is that YouGov is a real maverick when it comes to polling on this particular subject.

Of more relevance are the figures for the averages of all polls since May 2011

Yougov
30% Y / 56% N

ICM, AR, Comres, Panelbase (agree closely) + TNS-BMRB, MORI (agree reasonably but more biased to No due to methodology)
37% Y / 46% N

So Yougov are really out on a limb here when compared with all the other polling organisations.

[longshanks]

[NickB]

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This poll shows support for independence steady compared to the previous one from the same polling company, and opposition slightly up. Applying the standard margin of error to both polls in fact gives no reliable evidence of movement at all.

Looking at the way the Sunday Herald reported this poll today, John Curtice commented:

“The difference between this poll and that of other previous polls is too small for us to be sure there has actually been a swing to No. The three point increase in No support since the last YouGov poll may simply be a product of the ‘sampling error’ to which all polls are subject, rather than a reflection of a real movement.”

The Sunday Herald claims the 29% pro-independence figure as a “Record poll low for Yes vote”. Which is curious, as in January of this year the Herald was running the headline “Support for independence falls back to 23%”.

The Herald also notes that “Amongst SNP voters, 10% said they would reject the party’s key policy and vote No. A further 8% did not know which box they would tick in the referendum ballot.” This is a highly misleading representation of the actual findings – Devo Plus itself says “One-in-ten SNP voters would be more likely to vote ‘no’ if they got Devo Plus“. That’s a highly-conditional “maybe”, presented by the Herald as a definite “No”.

The poll also found that just 6.6% of voters would even consider changing their vote from Yes or Don’t Know to No if they believed the Devo Plus model would be adopted as a result. So - not much faith in these daft 'jam tomorrow if you vote no' promises there.

The results confirmed what other polls have found consistently, despite a concerted Labour and media campaign to present pro-independence supporters in the party as a tiny minority – 15% of Labour voters are currently planning to vote Yes, with another 10% undecided.

And of course, as previously mentioned, Yougov polls have consistently shown support for independence a full seven points lower than the average of all the other polling companies.

The information is all out there people - if you just take the time to look beyond the misleading headlines in the almost universally pro-union mainstream Scottish media.

[longshanks]

The fact that you are quoting word for word (without acknowledgement interestingly) from http://wingsoverscotland.com/plausible- ... more-40324 the home of the cybernats tells us something.

Lets face it. After over a year of huge effort by YesScotland the nationalists are totally rattled by yet further confirmation of our rejection of independence.

The cracks started to show at the turn of the year when it became known that three of the seven person executive of YesScotland have resigned and today we learn that Salmond is having to parachute in his most trusted adviser to shore up the operation.

Daily we walk into Balvicar Stores, we may not buy or read any of the newspapers on display, and see a constant diet of splash headlines warning against independence.

We can't avoid seeing them, nor can any Scot walking into any newsagent, grocery store, railway station etc. YesScotland is failing because it has signally failed to get any newspaper onside.

Today's YouGov poll simply illustrates our lack of appetite for going it alone.

20%+ (1,500,000 people) of the population of Catalonia marched on their rally for Independence last year. Last year Salmond got 0.2% (10,000 people at the highest estimate) for his rally.

I note he's organising another for a few weeks time. Anything less than 100,000 (2% of our population) will be seen as a disaster after 18 months of campaigning.

[NickB]

Daily we walk into Balvicar Stores, we may not buy or read any of the newspapers on display, and see a constant diet of splash headlines warning against independence.
We can't avoid seeing them, nor can any Scot walking into any newsagent, grocery store, railway station etc. YesScotland is failing because it has signally failed to get any newspaper onside.

Very true. And frankly I find it unlikely that the YES campaign WILL get any newspaper onside . . . the Scottish media is unionist to the core. If you want to find any balance in the debate you have to look outside the establishment, which is almost universally pro-Westminster.

Your point about headlines is also very valid. We walk past them and they are absorbed, even if we never read the stories beneath. The Scotsman in particular is very aware of this, and regularly publishes nat-bashing banner headlines that bear no relation to the story underneath. This is why proper scrutiny of our media is so important in this debate.

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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? (Who watches the watchers)
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Notwithstanding your obvious hatred for the site and your previous vilification of its owner/chief correspondent, Wings Over Scotland is by far the most effective of the current crop of political blogs when it comes to presenting a clearer picture of the way the mainstream Scottish media are behaving in their reporting of the debate.

If anyone other than you and I is reading this, then I suggest that they pay an open-minded visit to Wings and decide for themselves if the Scottish media are playing a fair game.

[MonaLott]

Many folk won't have noticed this independence debate stuff strangely and obscurely hidden outside Seil Chat. Just found it myself so here's a first. Read http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/20 ... oint-ahead, the first poll (by Panelbase) to show a majority of Scots saying YES. A year to go and the tide is turning............

[NickB]

Many folk won't have noticed this independence debate stuff strangely and obscurely hidden outside Seil Chat. Just found it myself so here's a first. Read http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/20 ... oint-ahead, the first poll (by Panelbase) to show a majority of Scots saying YES. A year to go and the tide is turning............

Fantastic news Mona - thanks for posting that. I knew there was a poll out this morning, but couldn't find it. I wonder how prominently it will appear in the mainstream media?

I predict Yougov will go out of business in Scotland at about the same time as the Hootsmon and the Herald - say September next year ?

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NOTES

The Panelbase poll asked:

There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" (Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):

Yes: 44% (+7)
No: 43% (-3)
Don't Know: 13% (-4)

"Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?"

The Scottish Government: 60%
The Westminster Government: 16%
Neither: 19%
Don't Know: 5%

"Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: 'Scotland could be a successful independent country'."

Yes, I agree: 52%
No, I disagree: 37%
Don't Know: 11%


Consistent Panelbase methodology is to report independence referendum voting intentions on the basis of those in the categories (8-10) who are most likely and certain to vote in the referendum - a base of 908 - and the other findings above are also from this base. Among the full sample of 1,043 - including those less likely and certain not to vote - the figures are 41 per cent Yes, 42 per cent No, 17 per cent Don't Know.

Panelbase is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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[longshanks]

Notwithstanding your obvious hatred for the site and your previous vilification of its owner/chief correspondent, Wings Over Scotland is by far the most effective of the current crop of political blogs when it comes to presenting a clearer picture of the way the mainstream Scottish media are behaving in their reporting of the debate.

No, please don't label me with emotions like hatred.

Regarding Stuart Campbell who runs WingsOverScotland from his home in Bath, England; I merely find him an incredibly unpleasant character as do the SNP and YesScotland who are, according to this piece, desperately trying to distance themselves from him and his blog:

[NickB]

I wondered how long it would take you to find that bizarre article from yesterday's Mail.

The measure of the success of Wings Over Scotland is in direct proportion to the lies and smears directed at it. The so-called 'better together' campaign should hang their heads in shame for resorting to these tactics - but then, they don't really have anything else to offer other than fear, lies and smears, do they?

(Oh, and rigged polls like yesterday's Yougov farce of course)

If you choose to believe everything you read in the Sunday Mail that is your prerogative, but I think today's Panelbase poll shows that the voters are beginning to see through the farcical fearmongering, cheap smears and undeliverable promises of 'jam Tomorrow' which is all Bitter Together have to offer.

[longshanks]

I wondered how long it would take you to find that bizarre article from yesterday's Mail.

The measure of the success of Wings Over Scotland is in direct proportion to the lies and smears directed at it. The so-called 'better together' campaign should hang their heads in shame for resorting to these tactics - but then, they don't really have anything else to offer other than fear, lies and smears, do they?

(Oh, and rigged polls like yesterday's Yougov farce of course)

If you choose to believe everything you read in the Sunday Mail that is your prerogative, but I think today's Panelbase poll shows that the voters are beginning to see through the farcical fearmongering, cheap smears and undeliverable promises of 'jam Tomorrow' which is all Bitter Together have to offer.

Wow !

So a professional poll, properly conducted and adhering to the regulations binding polling organisations is "rigged" and a "farce".

Good grief, why is that and what is the evidence ?

Nothing to do with the fact that Scottish voters answering the poll showed a referendum tomorrow would be 59% NO and a meage 29% YES ?

Hmmm.

As for the SNP poll you're banging on about.

I'd avoid Newsnight tonight if I were you !

Deliberate bias to achieve a result to calm the growing panic in the nationalist camp. I wonder ? Surely not.

Have a look at page 3 of http://www.panelbase.com/news/SNPPollTables020903.pdf , the details. Q3 is the big question "Should Scotland be an independent country ?"

Ah, it gives details of the political allegiences of the people they chose to ask.

Was there a bias towards those who support pro-independence parties in order to achieve the 43/42 split.

Lets see.

The respondents were:
368 SNP
232 Labour
114 Conservative
64 Lib Dem

Now, with that bias towards SNP, of course its going to give a false and biased result.

Sheer desparation and deceit. If Newsnight don't go big on it tonight its because they're building it into a much, much bigger story.

Sorry to rain on the nationalists parade but your nasty tirade above against those who wish to preserve the Union was inspirational.

[NickB]

I think you will find that your allegedly biased sample is pretty representative of the Scottish electorate.

The fact that the poll was commissioned by the SNP is utterly irrelevant. What is important - and what makes this poll a lot more credible than the Yougov poll - is that the Panelbase poll ASKED THE REFERENDUM QUESTION whereas the Yougov poll didn't - though it pretended to.

I predict that the mainstream media will attempt to rubbish the Panelbase poll because of the two questions preceding the referendum question. They will claim that these were intended to ' create a positive mindset towards independence' or some such nonsense. I further predict that not one of them will bother to point out that the Yougov poll polluted the referendum question by asking it in conjunction with the word 'separate'.

No matter. The electorate are getting the picture. It is becoming apparent to the majority of Scots that the Unionist emporer has no clothes while - bizarrely in the context of this metaphor - having the mainstream media in his pocket.

Glad I placed that bet at the odds I did. If I was you I would wait a while before placing yours, as I suspect the bookies' odds on a NO vote are going to lengthen in the weeks and months ahead.

[longshanks]

Glad I placed that bet at the odds I did.

Good luck with that then.......fnarr, fnarrr.

Odds currently are a NO vote @ 1/8 and a YES vote @ 5/1.

So, to give you £1,000 the bookies (ever met a poor bookie ?) are asking you to put up a massive £8,000 for a NO outcome or a mere £200 for a YES outcome.

That is a huge difference !

I think most people are sensible enough to trust the judgement of the money making machines called bookies over the easily manipulated result of an SNP opinion poll; especially in a two horse race.

Still, its your money. Guess you won't mind losing it. I'll buy you a pint or five of a great British beer in the TnT the day after Salmond's referendum to help you drown your sorrows.

[NickB]

Odds currently are a NO vote @ 1/8 and a YES vote @ 5/1

Looks like the odds are shortening already . . . Paddy Power are quoting 4-1 Yes 1-7 No right now.

[longshanks]

Odds currently are a NO vote @ 1/8 and a YES vote @ 5/1

Looks like the odds are shortening already . . . Paddy Power are quoting 4-1 Yes 1-7 No right now.

Sorry to dampen your excitement but Paddy Power have been quoting those odds for months (check your betting slip).....no shortening or lengthening going on I'm afraid.

[NickB]

For once even today's Scotsman's article on the Panelbase poll isn't totally dismissive. And it points out that Panelbase was the first polling organisation to show the SNP in the lead during the 2011 Holyrood election campaign.