Seil Chat

So...

All done bar the shouting now!

What's the thinking?

Predictions?


S

If the SNP take 55+ seats, Second Referendum within the year.

Not going to happen that quick, but it might well be in the 2016 SNP Holyrood manifesto. My money would be on 2017 or 2018. Cameron has implied he wouldn't grant a Section 30 order though, as has Miliband.

But let's get through the next couple of weeks first - interesting times. Cameron will definitely try to cling on to power, so we need every one of those SNP seats if possible.

50 seats is a nice round figure . . . That's what I am hoping for. But we've been disappointed before . . .

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NickB
(site admin)

It was rather meant to be 'tongue in cheek'

Your SNP Leader (the lady one) has categorically stated on many occasions that any future independence referendum will not be called for by the SNP, but by the people of Scotland itself.
I was under the impression that the last "one in a lifetime" one was decided upon under A. Salmond as SNP leader.
How then, under this directive from N. Sturgeon, are the people going to call for a new one?
A petition to Holyrood from whom? Our 4 local stalwarts?
Over to you N.B. - you have probably got the answer to this one up your sleeve somewhere.

The promise to hold a referendum was in the SNP manifesto for the 2011 Holyrood election, so people voted for it. And Salmond and the SNP kept that manifesto promise.

There would need to be a similar commitment in the 2016 manifesto for the Holyrood election, followed by the election of an SNP majority government. There will only be a referendum commitment in the manifesto when the SNP are pretty sure YES can win it convincingly next time round.

So the process would be:

a) The people of Scotland indicate there is a general mood in the country (via opinion polls etc) for a second referendum AND indicate that YES is the likely outcome

b) the SNP, picking up on this, include it in their manifesto

c) The people of Scotland vote overwhelmingly for the SNP - a party that has a commitment to hold a referendum in its manifesto.

The critical part is, what would trigger a)

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NickB
(site admin)

My fear is that the "no deal with the SNP" rhetoric that both Labour and Tories are spouting (which is pure political waltzing), may affect the "smell" rather than the legitimacy of any deal making post hung parliament from the rUK voters.

We may be looking at the end of the UK from the south rather than from the north!

Some commentators from the south are already saying that no matter what Sturgeon says about "this is not a referendum rerun", a clean sweep of SNP MPs pretty much is a cast iron mandate for a referendum rerun. This time it may be a UK wide one which sees the Scots being kicked out!

A UK referendum in late 2016 or early 2017 that asks.

Should "insert country" remain in the EU

PLUS

Should "insert country" remain in the UK

You could see England voting to go alone from both UK and EU, leaving NI to either reunify with EIRE and join EU, Wales either struggle to stand alone in EU or form some type of federal union with England.

And Scotland out on its own to work out whether to exist within the EU (with grave demands for right of access) or struggle outside the EU in a Norway style trade pact.

Thanks to N. B. for a very succinct report on the current/future options on a re-run of the independence referendum. Very clear, honest, and concise. Given the present euphoria in the SNP camp they probably think they could ask for title deeds to the moon, and the Scots electorate would back their request - but just how all this will play out after the UK results tomorrow remains a mystery awaiting several key players with an axe to grind. Whatever the outcome of their machinations in forming a UK Government, one question springs to mind - Who will call the SNP shots in Westminster - A Salmond with his cohorts, or N.Sturgeon in Holyrood? - up to now they have been in cahoots but now presumably they will have their own fiefdom. During the current election campaign, A.Salmond has been conspicuous by his absence from the electoral scene, and N. Sturgeon has swept all before her (nightly). Very accommodating of A. Salmond in bowing to the current leader of his party, but who is now going to be in charge of policy in Westminster where he with his entourage, and not N.S. up in Edinburgh.
A final note to Steve J. - I think you are being a trifle pessimistic, when you think that a major part of the union would seek to divorce a minor part of it into oblivion - we must be a serious thorn in their flesh at times, but I think that they know the advantages of solidarity, whereas we have only acceded to that by a surprisingly narrow margin recently.

All the information you require is readily found, Jim. Assuming the results tally with predictions, Salmond would be MP for Moray. Angus Robertson would continue to be leader of the SNP Commons group. Policy would be determined by the SNP, under Nicola Sturgeon as leader. Exactly as now, only with a somewhat louder voice. Not sure why you seem to think that newly-elected SNP MP's would suddenly declare independence from the party in Scotland.

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Tim

I agree Jim, Alex's absence has been noted. I think he has been seen as a toxic asset after the referendum. He became a very divisive personality in the referendum, too “marmite” to gain a popular vote as Nicola has.

What if she had been in charge in September….

Alex needs to win a seat in Gordon before he makes it down to Westminster and it will be up to Nicola who heads that team. She may have come up through the SNP on Alex's shirt tails but that does not mean she is a puppet to him now he has stood down as leader. The Westminster dreamteam noted here

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 24316.html

is led by Nicola personally with no mention of Alex.

The vile comments that have been appearing online in MSM election news against the Scots for months is disgusting. When you have xenophobic slurs being issued by the Mayor of London going unchecked, what do you think this says to the already primed and ready racist knuckle draggers out there?

I said from the start, you vote Yes, you have 5 hard years ahead fitting in to independence. You vote No, you have 25 hard years ahead trying (possibly unsuccessfully) to fit back in to the UK.

Polls show a slight last minute swing towards rUK labour!

Perhaps not!?