jimcee wrote:
NB - you are a great one for statistics - especially when they provide comfort.
Perhaps you might be prepared to forecast how these percentages you supplied would work out in the representation of the next Westminster and Holyrood parliaments - given our current electoral systems.
Get the slide rule out, or maybe the crystal ball, and give us your take on this valuable information.
The Ipsos Mori survey at the end of October asking about Westminster voting intentions shows Labour would poll 23% of the Scottish vote, leaving them with just four seats in Scotland if the swing was translated directly to seats. In comparison, support for the SNP has surged to 52%, giving them a projected 54 seats at Westminster.
In fact it is not as simple as that. The Ipsos Mori poll was better for the SNP than YouGov’s poll two days later which put the SNP on 43%, 16 points ahead of Labour on 27%This is much less than the lead reported by Ipsos MORI, who put the SNP 26 points ahead. It is, however, well in line with the figures in the Scottish subsamples of YouGov’s recent British polls.
And of course Labour majorities across labour seats vary widely, with a much bigger swing needed in some areas than others.
All the above notwithstanding, Prof Curtice, Scotland's favourite internet psephologist, predicts that even on the YouGov figures Labour’s Scottish representation at Westminster could fall to just 10 seats, while the SNP might have 47.
This depends, of course, on the Scottish electorate not reverting to type in May and falling for the old, tired 'vote Labour to keep the Tories out' mantra again. It is a long time - in political terms - until we cast our votes in May.