jimcee wrote:
No. I would suggest that the SNP membership increased because those people who were not members but voted YES felt kind of aggrieved and as a voice of dissent at the result, opted to join the SNP. However their numbers, although gratifying to the SNP (and no doubt to their coffers), were still on the wrong side of the equation in the recent results, and can be disregarded for any computation on any future poll. By all means feel chuffed about all these extra SNP names on the list, but you will still have to work on the silent majority.
The 'silent majority' can be broken down as follows:
~ diehard unionists and those who wojuld like to see the Scottish parliament dissolved
~ those who voted for the status quo or a wee bit more devolution because that is what they wanted
~ those who voted for the 'devo-max' or the 'federal solution' that was proposed by Gordon Brown and enshrined in 'The Vow
The critical ones are those in the third group. I don't know how many they are, but 6% would have been enough to swing the result. It is this third group who pose the danger to the Westminster parties, as they are likely to feel betrayed and angry if/when these hastily made promises fail to materialise.
The unionist parties have a lot to live up to because of their panicky last minute promises, and already there are signs that these 'promises' and 'vows' are just more political hot air. However, we must wait in good faith for the result of the Smith Commission before completely writing them off, which is what Nicola Sturgeon has agreed to do. With draft legislation due out well before the May general election there is plenty of time for the Scottish electorate to scrutinise the proposals and deliver their verdict. If they are not happy then I think we could expect to see a substantial increase in the number of SNP seats at Westminster - particularly if Labour have been seen to be dragging their heels on the extent of the promised powers.
Current Scottish voting intentions in the general election according to the latest Panelbase poll:
SNP: 34%
Labour: 32%
Conservative: 18%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
UKIP: 6%
Other: 5%
From the 2010 election, this is a huge 14% jump for the SNP, with Labour dropping 10%. On a uniform swing, these results would see Labour lose seven seats to the SNP, while the Lib Dems would lose five to the SNP and two to the Tories.
However, there are few are the Westminster seats that are marginal between Labour and the SNP. There are no Labour seats in which the SNP will start off less than 10 points behind and only three in which they will begin less than 20 points behind.
So the SNP will need to increase their lead over Labour substantially beyond the current 2% to gain a significant number of extra seats. That is what I shall personally be campaigning for. Labour really don't deserve to represent this country at Westminster any more IMO - they have taken the Scottish electorate for granted for far too long.
We still live in interesting times.
Login
FAQ
Members
[/color]
