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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:51 pm 
This, today, from Prof MacDonald the Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University.

Its a call for Salmond to come up with a Plan B on his currency proposal of using the pound.

He, from his depths of expertise and experience, sees absolute disaster for our economy if Salmond doesn't come up with a Plan B.

Quote:
If Scotland were to become independent it may inherit a proportion of the UK’s national debt although even if it had not, it would still have to issue debt to finance its fiscal deficit, which would most likely be in the region of 5-6% of GDP post independence. That debt has to be sold on open financial markets. Again it is now widely accepted that an independent Scotland would incur a premium on its debt (i.e. a higher interest rate), which is simply in the nature of small countries with shallow capital markets, especially new ones. This premium would be determined by financial markets but is likely to be in the region of 1 – 2% above what HMT would have to pay on similar UK debt.

However, the 1-2% premium is predicated on an independent Scotland having a credible currency arrangement and, indeed, wider macroeconomic framework in place. As things stand at the moment, the proposed currency system is not credible and international capital markets would require such a huge premium on and independent Scotland’s debt that its deficit would be unsustainable and the Scottish Government would be forced to make significant cuts to public expenditure, or raise taxes or both and abandon its exchange rate policy at huge cost to the Scottish economy.

Of course, even before the first day of independence individuals and business would have an 18 month transition period to move capital out of the Scottish economy if there are clear uncertainties arising from its currency policy. Attempts by, for example, key elements of the Scottish Financial sector to locate some (perhaps in proportion to its trade with rUK) or all of its business south of the border, could have massively profound effects on the Scottish economy in terms of employment and output.

So with no well thought through plan B in place the outcome of a Yes vote would produce a very uncertain time for the Scottish economy, with likely massive disruption to employment and output which would be generational in its impact, just as in the case of previous economic mismanagement of UK exchange rate policy.

Their also seems to be an important misperception in the recent White Paper, and in statements by prominent figures in the SNP, that the UK would have to sign up to a sterling zone arrangement because the balance of payments consequences of not doing so would be unpalatable for rUK. However, it is widely accepted that sterling is currently overvalued. Much of this comes from the effect of North Sea oil revenues on the UK balance of payments. Freeing the UK from this burden would make the UK much more competitive but have the opposite effect on the Scottish economy. This is surely not a very good bargaining position for the Scottish government?

Without a plan B, then, on the currency issue the Scottish public are effectively being duped about the potential massive costs and disruption to the Scottish economy.

http://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/viable-plan-b/

No doubt the nationalists will dismiss this as the outpourings of a Unionist lackey.....come on; he's The Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University; he has one of the highest academic reputations in the land to protect. He is not going to deliberately publish bilge.

Why don't the nationalists listen ?

Why do they try to shout down the slightest criticism ?

Its ours, our childrens' and our grandchildrens' futures being threatened by Salmond's personal ambitions.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:21 pm 
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LS, you really need to learn to make your valued contributions more succinct and less frequent over multiple threads. Currently you're like a scattergun and it's boring and confusing. Too much time on your hands. Bearing in mind that you once were a local school teacher, you should already know the virtues of brevity and precision.
And get this into your head - this is NOT at all about Alex Salmond - or about some donkey at Glasgow Uni. It's about our apolitical future - the pound issue is trivial. The running of our own affairs is critical, as is our future as a positive, mature, unpretentious, non-invasive, fair and just country with a proud history and a great potential future.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:47 pm 
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It's one man's opinion.

He may be the Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University but he is not omniscient.

There are plenty of other well-respected economic opinions to the contrary like that of Jeremy Peat, director of think-tank the David Hume Institute, or Jim Walker of Asianomics.

I expect you will either choose to ignore these or Google them before indulging in a bit of sneering or character assassination.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:09 pm 
I agree MonaLott. It shouldn't be about one man. i.e Alex Salmond. But he is the Yes campaign's best asset and you have to wonder what it would be without him. But you cannot dismiss the pound issue as being trivial. Alex Salmond has no where to go. It's the Pound or bust. The Pound was Plan B and now he has found out that he has no way of knowing whether Scotland will have it or not. You've followed him faithfully, but he should have worked all these things out long before starting his life mission to make Scotland independent. I could have supported Scottish Independence but the arguments to justify it fell apart a long time ago


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:03 pm 
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PentlandPirate II wrote:
It's the Pound or bust.

Oh? I thought that it was the pound and bust according to the critics.

In the unlikely event that a Sterling union doesn't work out a new currency could be set up in a remarkably short space of time. After the Czechoslovakian 'velvet divorce' the two countries had a currency union for just six weeks before deciding to knock it on the head an d set up their own currencies.

Here's an interesting Reuters article about it : Lessons from Czechoslovakia: a currency split that worked

You and Longshanks go on and on - and on - as if a country becoming independent is the most difficult thing in the world. Over one hundred other countries have managed it since the end of WW2, so why can't the Scotland?

We are a resourceful nation. Any and all problems - anticipated and unanticipated - can be solved by the Scots for the Scots - but only if we vote YES. If we are too afraid to give it a go then our future will be decided by politicians for whom Scotland is little more than a source of oil revenue and a convenient base for their WMD.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:21 pm 
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Here's an interesting Reuters article about it : Lessons from Czechoslovakia: a currency split that worked


Actually if you research it you will find there are a large number of Czechs and Slovaks who think it was a mistake to split the country. The trouble is they can't easily reverse it. And that's an issue for Scotland. There's no going back. You can't try independence and see what it's like and go back if things don't turn out so rosy. Is the UK so torrid and filled with evil that some Scots must vote to leave it no matter what the cost? Aren't they a little selfish, a little self centred? Must they bear a grudge with everyone and every decision? Why can't some Scots be content with things like everyone else is. Why can't they tolerate being part of a 'family', why can't they live with a bit of give and take? Fortunately I know this doesn't apply to the majority of Scots....but some....it's sad.

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can be solved by the Scots for the Scots - but only if we vote YES


But Scotland will only become more vulnerable to EU decisions and laws that make a mockery of Scotland's aim to be independent. At least as part of the UK, projected to be the strongest performing country in the EU by 2030, Scotland has a strong partner to influence the way Europe works. "Ah, but Scotland's Oil..".I hear you say. Give it a rest. The oil in the North Sea will be worthless long before it has run out.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:28 pm 
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PentlandPirate II wrote:
Actually if you research it you will find there are a large number of Czechs and Slovaks who think it was a mistake to split the country.

I would be interested to see your research.

Where is it published?

Is it peer reviewed?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:36 pm 
How many Czechs and Slovaks do you know? I rarely go through a day without meeting or talking to one.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:38 pm 
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PentlandPirate II wrote:
How many Czechs and Slovaks do you know? I rarely go through a day without meeting or talking to one.


I can understand why you would be unable to tell the difference between idle gossip and research.

So, no research then.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:41 pm 
MonaLott wrote:
LS, you really need to learn to make your valued contributions more succinct and less frequent over multiple threads. Currently you're like a scattergun and it's boring and confusing. Too much time on your hands. Bearing in mind that you once were a local school teacher, you should already know the virtues of brevity and precision.
And get this into your head - this is NOT at all about Alex Salmond - or about some donkey at Glasgow Uni. It's about our apolitical future - the pound issue is trivial. The running of our own affairs is critical, as is our future as a positive, mature, unpretentious, non-invasive, fair and just country with a proud history and a great potential future.


Mona, do try to be less condescending and judgemental and, I must say, don't let your imagination run riot; "school teacher" indeed..........heaven forbid. :lol:

You did just what I predicted by dismissing Prof MacD as "some donkey at Glasgow Uni".

Dismissing one of our leading and most respected academics with an insult because he dares to say something critical of Salmond. The nationalist side are acting like fanatics, not like responsible Scots who would take heed of well structured and qualified information from someone pre-eminent in their field..

If Salmond doesn't take heed of Prof MacDonald and then follow his advice then, if there is a surprise Yes vote, he has told us of the horrendous consequences for economy.

Once the consequences hit hard I wouldn't be surprised if there weren't lamposts made ready by my angry fellow countrymen for the nationalists who so fouly deceived them with an empty dream of nirvana.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:55 pm 
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longshanks wrote:
. . . one of our leading and most respected academics . . .

Care to justify that?

Is he, for example, one of our 'top 20' academics, or one of our 'top 100 economists' ?

Or is he merely 'leading' because what he is saying this time chimes with your views? Ditto 'respected' ?

How 'respected' is he on a scale of 1-100 ? How does he compare with, say, Professor John Kay?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:01 pm 
He's The Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University.

Can you name a higher or more prestigious chair in that subject in another Scottish University ?


Salmond's, and his disciples, huge mistake is to not listen to anything which is not totally in tune with his project.

That methodology leads to disastrous mistakes.

Has the "Rev" in Bath come out with a debunking of Prof MacDonald's paper yet ? I'll check on Wings to see if its ready for dissemination to the cybernuts.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:14 pm 
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longshanks wrote:
He's The Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University.

Can you name a higher or more prestigious chair in that subject in another Scottish University ?

It's just a chair.

You do realise that Adam Smith didn't found it? It was named after him because he was a graduate of Glasgow Uni over 150 years prior to its founding.

Or do you think Adam Smith himself has personally approved Prof MacD's appointment from beyond the grave ?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:23 pm 
NickB wrote:
longshanks wrote:
He's The Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at Glasgow University.

Can you name a higher or more prestigious chair in that subject in another Scottish University ?

It's just a chair.

Or do you think Adam Smith himself has personally approved Prof MacD's appointment from beyond the grave ?


You're showing a level of ignorance of academia but so be it.

Why do you prefer to attack the man yet refuse to address the published result of his work ? One can only assume that you find it hard to even consider another's viewpoint if it doesn't chime with the nationalist script or mantra ?

A wise man listens to opposing views and tempers his judgement accordingly.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:38 pm 
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longshanks wrote:

Why do you prefer to attack the man yet refuse to address the published result of his work ?

I'm not attacking the man at all. Where exactly have I done that?

All I pointed was he is just one voice, one academic. There are plenty more, but according to you this one is something special and any others are to be ignored. (Unless they agree with you, that is).

You seem to be in uncritical awe of title, power and influence - all things I hope to see diminish in importance in an independent Scotland.

longshanks wrote:
A wise man listens to opposing views and tempers his judgement accordingly.

Take a leaf from your own book, why don't you?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:41 pm 
NickB wrote:
How 'respected' is he on a scale of 1-100 ? How does he compare with, say, Professor John Kay?


Is there a respect scale one can refer to ?

As to is he more respected than John Kay ? You tell me.

Their views are not dissimilar. Here's John Kay in The FT in November. Its paywalled so pointless giving a link. Maybe you have a subscription ? .....go to archive 29/11/13.

Quote:
It is possible to imagine a future for an independent Scotland characterised by reactionary municipal socialism – and the crony capitalism that brought Ireland and Iceland close to economic collapse.


Quote:
While Mr Salmond insists that there is no currency plan B, Scotland would have no negotiating power without one and the rational plan B – a Scottish pound pegged to sterling – is also the likely outcome.


Why doesn't Salmond listen to him ?


BTW. Your posts replying to me may be seen as rather personal and perhaps somewhat antagonistic.....see the post above.

Can I propose that we agree between us to discuss the subject and not the poster in the interests of good relations ? I'm up for it.

D'accord ?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:57 pm 
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longshanks wrote:
Why doesn't Salmond listen to him ?


I'm sure Alex Salmond is a lot more widely read on this subject than you or I.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:22 am 
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'nuff said.

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